[Midden-Oosten] Franklin Lamb: Putin Gives Israel the Green Light, Iran the Red Light and Assad/Trump the Yellow Light in Syria

[Jeff]

Counterpunch
June 8, 2018
Putin Gives Israel the Green Light, Iran the Red Light and Assad/Trump 
the Yellow Light in Syria
by Franklin Lamb

https://www.counterpunch.org/2018/06/08/putin-gives-israel-the-green-light-iran-the-red-light-and-assad-trump-the-yellow-light-in-syria/

Why does Israel get a Putin Green Light?

Israel has found itself is a relatively strong position militarily and 
politically with respect to Iran/Hezbollah in the Middle East over the 
past half year. Achieved partly by agreeing with the White House to be 
patient and adhere to the American-European-Russian plan for dealing 
with Iran in Syria. Under the plan the Trump Administration will 
intensify the destruction of what is left of Iran’s nearly collapsed 
economy with massive new sanctions and Israel gets carte blanche to bomb 
all of Iran and Hezbollah’s military sites in Syria which intensifying 
missile attacks.

The “Resistance Axis” in Syria is reportedly by some (Syrian students as 
well as some government officials) as being afraid to step above ground 
or out of the shadows because they fear that their every footstep in 
being closely watched and in less than a minute can be zoomed in on by 
one deadly device or another.

Putin is fine with this, knowing that Iran has no intension of leaving 
Syria and seeing it as the main threat to the region. Israel can’t 
accept the unlimited growth of Iranian influence in Syria, as this 
threatens its own national security. Moscow must consider both Israel’s 
and Iran’s security concerns, which surely are mutually exclusive.

According to some Russian soldiers with more than two years deployment 
in Syria, Putin is said to believe, as does the Russian army in Syria, 
that the more IRCG and weapons loses Iran and Hezbollah sustain from 
Israel the better for the region and Russia’s post-war reconstruction 
prospects in Syria. Over the past several months, Israel has repeatedly 
demonstrated that Iran has no effective conventional response to Israeli 
air actions.

More broadly, while Israeli air action may make the Iranians think twice 
in terms of deployment of heavy weapons systems in Syria, the broader 
Iranian project of establishing local client militias and stationing 
proxy forces on Syria soil remains largely untouched and invulnerable to 
Israeli air action.

In recent months Israel launched numerous attacks on Syrian and Iranian 
targets in Syria and Moscow turned a blind eye to them. This was a 
strong signal to Assad that Russia cannot and will not protect his 
military if the Iranians continue to expand their military presence in 
Syria. It also underlined that Russia takes Israeli security concerns 
into account. Moscow also doesn’t want to risk its ties with Israel, 
which is an important partner in many spheres. Economically, Israel is 
Russia’s fourth largest trading partner in the region, with a turnover 
of $2.5 billion in 2017, which exceeds that with Iran at $1.7 billion. 
Russia and Israel have established close and effective cooperation in 
the military, intelligence, and security spheres.

When Russia deployed its military to Syria, it immediately established a 
coordination channel with Israel to avoid any incidents. This channel 
has functioned flawlessly so far. Another important factor is that 
Israel acts as an additional channel of communication between the United 
States and Russia, one that understands Russian concerns in the region. 
Putin wants normal across the board relations with the US and its 
allies. However, this raises a question: To what lengths are Russia and 
Israel ready to pursue their current interests in Syria? So far, they 
have managed to, but there is no guarantee that this will be the case 
forever.

Putin’s moves are about making Damascus understand that it needs to keep 
the Iranians and their allies away from the border with Israel and not 
provoke Israeli attacks.

In the end, it appears that Putin is telling Assad that he won’t benefit 
from an hegemonic Iranian presence and influence in Syria, as this will 
only create much more pressure being on Damascus, bringing many more 
problems and complicating a political settlement.


Why does Iran get a Putin Red Light?

Russian president Putin increasingly communicates that he wants all 
Iranian forces out of Syria entirely. Frankly, so does the Assad regime, 
but not just yet. Given a choice between Moscow and Tehran, Assad chose 
Russia, during their meeting in Sochi, Syrian official confirm.

The “alliance” between Russia and Iran in Syria never had much romance 
in it but rather the result of some short term perceived interests. 
While Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iran’s Supreme Leader 
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei both strove to save the regime of Syrian 
President Bashar Assad, the more this goal is achieved, the further the 
fissures between Tehran and Moscow widen.

For more than the past couple of years, General Qassim Solemani, the al 
Quds leader has spoken openly about his distrust of Putin. The Mullahs 
in Tehran suspect that Putin was interested in playing the role of sole 
decision maker in Syria.

As long as the Syrian regime was in danger of collapse, Putin 
appreciated the fact that more than two dozen Shiite militias, Iranians 
and Hezbollah fighters were being crushed in the battlefield and sparing 
Russians from many of those loses and countless other problems. But now, 
Putin believes the time may have come for Iran to leave Syria and forget 
about controlling the Arab region.

Russian diplomats told Arab news outlets that Putin has opted for a 
stronger stance toward Iran, which he now views as a destabilizing 
element impeding Russian interests in Syria: “Assad received an 
unequivocal message that he had to choose between Moscow and Tehran, and 
he chose the Russian side,” a senior official in Assad’s regime told 
Kremlin mouthpiece RT news. Assad said on 6/1/18 with a straight face 
that Iran’s presence in Syria was limited to officers assisting the 
Syrian army not the 110,000 Iranian trained, funded and armed militia or 
Hezbollah. They simply were not in Syria he insisted despite their 
rising death tolls.

The Kremlin has given Israel a green light yet again on 6/1/18 to launch 
as many attacks in Syria as it believes warranted, if they do not target 
Syrian President Assad’s personal assets, i.e. the Presidential Palace 
which is a very easy target sitting high on a hill above central 
Damascus on Mt. Qasioun. But Israel had pushed back on Putin’s edict. 
Bashar al-Assad’s regime is “no longer immune” from retaliation, Prime 
Minister Netanyahu warned during a visit to London on 6/7/2018. “He is 
no longer immune; his regime is no longer immune. If he fires at us, we 
will destroy his forces. A new calculus has taken place and Syria has to 
understand that Israel will not tolerate Iranian military entrenchment 
in Syria.”.

According to the London based Asharq Al-Awsat report, Russian Defense 
Minister Sergei Shoigu assured the Israeli Defense Minister during their 
meeting on the subject of a de-escalation zone in southern Syria in 
Moscow on 5/31/18 of Russia’s approval for Israeli strikes.

The arrangements include complete removal of any Iranian/Hezbollah 
presence in southern Syria closer than 40 to 50 miles from the 
Syrian-Israeli border. Media reports as of 6/1/18 from Washington and 
Gulf countries reported that Putin now wants all Iranian 120,000 militia 
including Hezbollah out of all of Syria without further delays.

Under no circumstances will Iran accept this order from Putin. There 
exist significant Moscow-Tehran conflicts on several major issues. One 
is the fate of President Bashar al-Assad. Others include postwar 
political reforms, the role of the Kurds, cooperation with the United 
States, the extent of their postwar military presence and influence in 
Syria, to name a few.

However, Iranian advisers and Hezbollah combatants will be withdrawing 
from the southern regions of Daraa and Quneitra near the Israeli 
occupied Syrian Golan Heights.

Yet Putin has found himself in a tough spot where it cannot easily 
control Iranian actions in Syria, contrary to the belief of many. While 
Moscow has tried to increase pressure to allow for more compromise, 
Tehran can easily sabotage any initiative or plan proposed by Russia 
that doesn’t suit its interests. Tehran has already done so on numerous 
occasions, especially about the de-escalation zones and a political 
process in Syria. It will be difficult, therefore, for Moscow to reach 
an agreement with Iran. As a result, the Kremlin will need extra 
leverage to exert more pressure to move any realistic political process 
forward.


Why do Assad and Trump receive Putin’s the Yellow Light?

Putin has decided that there are special roles for Bashar Assad and 
Donald Trump for a political solution to the Syrian conflict and 
restoring the war battered country that has cost more than 3 million 
Syrians their jobs thus collapsing the economy. Putin seeks both as 
Syrian Reconstruction partners.

Using a Yellow Light, Putin arranged Assad’s latest snap visit to Sochi 
on 5/17/18 which showed that this might be happening. Because of the 
meeting, Assad agreed to send Syrian governmental representatives to 
Geneva to take part in the work of the Constitutional Committee to draft 
Syria’s new constitution. Assad’s commitment is an important concession 
given after the conference on Syria in Sochi earlier this year when 
Assad refused to accept participation in the Constitutional Committee. 
That was a slap to Putin, but apparently Putin applied pressure to get 
what he wanted. Moscow will continue increasing pressure on Assad. It 
needs results in Syria, which require concessions from Damascus, Ankara, 
Iran, and Russia itself.

Putin’s moves are also about Yellow Lighting Damascus that it needs to 
keep the Iranians and their allies away from the border with Israel and 
not provoke Israeli attacks. Putin is telling Assad that he won’t 
benefit from an Iranian presence and influence in Syria, as this will 
only lead to more pressure being exerted on Damascus, bringing further 
problems and complicating a political settlement.

Putin and Assad both know well that the regime is between a rock and a 
hard place. On one hand, the withdrawal of the Iranians, the Lebanese 
Hezbollah and the rest of the militias will weaken its power, leading to 
its possible collapse. On another hand, if these forces stay in Syria, 
it means it (the regime) will become their puppet.

Putin is advising the Trump White not to rush into joining the military 
factions in northern and central Syria have just announced that they are 
joining forces to form the National Liberation Front (NLF) and calling 
on others to join them in building a new democratic state that preserves 
the rights of all Syrians regardless of ethnicity. The NLF includes a 
number of major opposition military factions operating in northern and 
central Syria, among them the Free Idlib Army, Martyrs of Islam Brigade, 
Jaish al-Nasr and others. The group was launched in May. 2018, when Col. 
Fadlallah Al-Hajji was appointed commander in chief, with Lt. Col. 
Suhaib Leoush as his deputy and Maj. Mohamed Mansour as chief of staff. 
“The NLF is a new military formation that was the result of four months 
of consultations and negotiations between the leaders of the Free Syrian 
Army factions. The leaders Putin is also Yellow Lighting President Trump 
urging caution with respect to the announcement of 6/6/18 during which 
Iran’s nuclear chief inaugurated the Islamic Republic’s new nuclear 
enrichment facility. It has been reported from Washington that some in 
the Trump admonition advocate destroying it.

Putin is reportedly urging Washington to cooperate with “Yemen’s Foreign 
Minister Khalid Al-Yamani has called on the United States for 
cooperation to thwart any attempt of a new Hezbollah being formed in 
Yemen, which would threaten security and stability in the region. 
Al-Yamani said, during his meeting in Riyadh with the US Ambassador to 
Yemen Matthew H. Tueller, that his government supports the United States 
position towards the Iranian regime and rejects Iran’s “intervention and 
its absurd agenda” in the region. He discussed the importance of all 
partners’ continued support and backed efforts for a peaceful political 
settlement in Yemen including that of the UN envoy’s attempts to find a 
just and sustainable political solution to the crisis in the country.”

It is the view of this observer than the coming weeks will witness 
substantial developments in Syria, Iran and Lebanon. If the outcomes are 
positive we may be in the position of crediting Russia’s President 
Putin. This will not erase his status with the forthcoming International 
Tribunal on Syria (ITS) where he is expected to be indicted for a ranges 
of war crimes and crimes against humanity, but it may well benefit to an 
important degree the innocent people of Syria in the coming period.

-----------------------------------
Franklin Lamb volunteers with the Lebanon, France, and USA based Meals 
for Syrian Refugee Children Lebanon (MSRCL) which seeks to provide hot 
nutritional meals to Syrian and other refugee children in Lebanon. 
http://mealsforsyrianrefugeechildrenlebanon.com. He is reachable c/o 
fplamb op gmail.com.